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Iraq Monitorعين على العراقPrimary-source intelligence · updated 14:43 Baghdad
THE BRIEFING · A PERMANENT EDITION

Friday, 31 July 2026

MORNING EDITION

The Daily Digest

Yemen's Houthis have been launching attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory, Reuters reported on Thursday citing sources — the first outside account of who fired what Riyadh answered with Wednesday's joint US-Saudi strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces sites, which Shafaq has assembled into a what-is-known account of the attack. Baghdad's account runs the other way: the government says it did not authorise or know of the strikes beforehand, denies coordination and says no evidence supports the Saudi claim that the drones flew from Iraq.

Iran received the bodies of five IRGC members killed in the raids, and the deputy speaker of parliament said the government does not control war decisions.

Al-Ghadeer TV (Badr Organization — official) published Badr leader Hadi al-Amiri this morning inspecting a struck position of the Fourth Regiment, 30th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces in the Nineveh Plain, naming no perpetrator and giving no date for the strike itself; the desk records no claim of responsibility from any party in the supplied material and no outside coverage of that incident.

Popular Mobilization dead were buried in the same Nineveh Plain today, and the two factions filming the funeral named different perpetrators — Al-Ahad TV (Asaib Ahl al-Haq — official) captioned its video as burying the martyrs of "the brutal American-Saudi aggression" with no number of dead, while Harakat al-Jihad wal-Bina's official channel relayed deputy Jawad Rahim al-Saadi likening the bombing of Hashd headquarters to Saudi car bombs of 2004-2006 without naming who struck.

Al-Janoub TV (Harakat al-Jihad wal-Bina — official) then put in its own caption, over a hosted argument between Tabaruk al-Husayni and Salah al-Kabisi, the question of why neither the sovereignty statement nor al-Khanjar condemned the Saudi bombing, endorsing neither disputant.

The disarmament argument the strikes reopened moved on today: the PMF chief rejected calls to hand weapons to the Iraqi state, a former prime minister said force will not solve the weapons issue, and Muqtada al-Sadr renewed his criticism of the militias while Ammar al-Hakim called for shielding Iraq from regional conflicts. Asharq al-Awsat reported that Iraq avoided admitting Gulf attacks were launched from its territory 'to avoid premature confrontation'. Middle East Eye reported drone strikes on Erbil and Sulaymaniyah overnight, with no attribution in the supplied material.

The government confirmed a financial crisis and warned of salary delays, Baghdad needing more than $2.5 billion to complete salary and pension payments, with Rafidain Bank moving to speed disbursement. Al-Ahad TV (Asaib Ahl al-Haq — official) ran two parliamentary items within fifteen minutes this morning — Adnan Fihan imposing "exceptional parliamentary action" on financial and political performance, then MP Haidar Muhammad al-Mutairi on a Finance Ministry deficit of 3 trillion 300 billion dinars and ten months of unpaid degree-holder salaries — and no other tracked faction outlet in the collected window raised either figure.

The desk's Brent settlement reads 91.82 USD/bbl, down 8.5% against the previous observation, and Rudaw asked how long Central Bank reserves and the money-printing scheme can carry the gap.

Ankara and Baghdad both expect Iraqi crude to keep flowing through Turkey while an extension deal is discussed, and Turkey is seeking a comprehensive energy cooperation deal with Iraq as bp brings Türkiye's TPAO into the Kirkuk oil redevelopment project. In Kurdistan, a warehouse fire closed the Erbil-Kirkuk road — Rudaw reported ten locations alight in Shakara Shar in one day, the largest being the road blaze where several warehouses were still burning. The KRG approved an emergency fuel strategy and reaffirmed its budget rights in the 2027 federal spending plan, and President Barzani met Halbousi on Erbil-Baghdad relations.

THINGS TO WATCH
Corroboration or rebuttal of the Houthi-from-Iraq accountmedium likelihoodhigh impactReuters' sourced report that Houthis attack Saudi Arabia from Iraqi soil sits directly against Baghdad's statement that no evidence supports the Saudi claim, so named launch sites or an on-record confirmation from Riyadh or Washington would settle which account holds.
A perpetrator named for the Nineveh Plain strike sitemedium likelihoodmedium impactBadr's own outlet published al-Amiri at a Fourth Regiment position it says was struck while naming no perpetrator and no date, and no other tracked channel carried it, so any party claiming or being credibly assigned that strike would be new.
A salary payment schedule or new borrowinghigh likelihoodhigh impactThe government has admitted the crisis, the shortfall is put above $2.5 billion and Rafidain is already moving to speed payments, so an announced disbursement date or a fresh financing measure is the observable next step.
Parliamentary summons over the Finance Ministry shortfallmedium likelihoodmedium impactAsaib Ahl al-Haq-aligned MPs are pressing a 3 trillion 300 billion dinar deficit and ten months of arrears under the banner of "exceptional parliamentary action", which would show up as a hearing, summons or tabled motion.
Iraq-Turkey pipeline extension signed or lapsingmedium likelihoodhigh impactBoth governments say flows continue while a renewal is discussed, so a signed extension — or the talks running out without one — is a datable outcome for the revenue side of the salary gap.

The Militia Digest

Popular Mobilization Forces dead were buried in the Nineveh Plain today, and the two factions filming the loss named different perpetrators. Al-Ahad TV (AAH — official) posted midday funeral video captioned as burying "the martyrs of the Hashd" killed in "the brutal American-Saudi aggression," with no number of dead; twenty minutes earlier the official channel of Harakat al-Jihad wal-Bina relayed deputy Jawad Rahim al-Saadi saying the bombing of Hashd headquarters "yesterday" recalled Saudi car bombs of 2004-2006, without naming who struck.

Al-Ghadeer TV (Badr Organization — official) separately published Hadi al-Amiri inspecting a struck position of the Fourth Regiment, 30th Brigade in the Nineveh Plain and named no perpetrator at all. No militia claim of retaliation appears in the tracked channels.

Outside the militia channels, a Saudi source told Asharq al-Awsat that the response targeted Iraqi militia capabilities that threatened its security, and Iran received the bodies of five IRGC members killed in US-Saudi airstrikes in Iraq; drone strikes on Erbil and Sulaymaniyah were reported overnight. Inside the space the fight was over an Iraqi politician's silence: Ansar Allah al-Awfiya's official channel twice posted its leader Ali al-Fatlawi attacking Khamis al-Khanjar's statement and calling on Popular Mobilization Forces leadership to prosecute him.

Al-Ahad TV aired al-Moussawi calling Khanjar a supporter of ISIS under the banner "the right of response is guaranteed"; Al-Janoub TV (Harakat al-Jihad wal-Bina — official) instead hosted a dispute and asked in its own caption why neither sovereignty statement condemned the Saudi bombing. Khanjar has made no reply on record here.

Asaib Ahl al-Haq's official armed-group channel relayed an Al-Arabi TV report just before midday that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi threatened the Coordination Framework with his resignation over faction weapons, adding that the Framework and the commanders told him there would be no handover of weapons and no dissolution of the factions; Watan TV (Badr Organization — affiliated) carried the same broadcast fifty minutes later without the refusal language. Kurdistan24 reported the resignation threat as tied to a rift over a Saudi visit, and separately that the Popular Mobilization Forces chief rejected calls to hand weapons to the state.

Al-Nujaba TV (Nujaba — official) aired Athir al-Shara saying of the Hashd's ideology that "there are factions that came for the salary," naming none; no tracked channel answered.

Four channels across the Kataib Hezbollah, Ashab al-Kahf, Nujaba and Badr networks carried word-for-word, within eighteen minutes this morning, a Harakat al-Jihad al-Islami statement that a reported agreement between the factions and "the enemy" is "inaccurate" and reserved upon in its circulated form — Sabereen News (KH — affiliated) first at 05:13, Shabab al-Islam (Ashab al-Kahf — owned/non-official) four minutes later; the operative word is reservation, not rejection, and none of the four added a position of its own.

Shabab al-Islam also reproduced the Sana'a demonstration statement's full escalation clauses — naval blockade of "the Saudi enemy," blessing operations against ships — while Al-Ghadeer TV carried only its unity-of-arenas line. Those are the demonstrators' words as relayed; no Iraqi faction claimed any operation against Saudi Arabia or shipping in this window. Al-Ahad TV meanwhile raised a 3.3 trillion dinar Finance Ministry shortfall and ten months of unpaid degree-holder salaries, as the government confirmed a financial crisis and warned of salary delays.

THINGS TO WATCH
A claim of responsibility for the Nineveh Plain strikemedium likelihoodhigh impactTwo militia channels agree Popular Mobilization Forces personnel were killed and diverge on the perpetrator, and Badr's own outlet filmed a struck regiment position naming nobody, so any party announcing the strike or a site-by-site follow-up would settle attribution.
Retaliation claimed under a militia brandmedium likelihoodhigh impactNo militia claim of retaliation for the deaths appears in the tracked channels, while a Saudi source says the response hit Iraqi militia capabilities — a claimed counter-strike would be the first operational move.
Direct word from al-Zaidi's office or the Coordination Frameworkmedium likelihoodhigh impactThe resignation threat and the reported refusal to surrender weapons rest on an Al-Arabi TV report as relayed by two faction channels, with neither principal quoted directly.
Identification of the reported factions-enemy agreementmedium likelihoodmedium impactFour channels carried Harakat al-Jihad al-Islami's reservation without identifying which agreement, factions or enemy is meant, and no outside coverage of it is in hand.
A reply from Khanjar or Popular Mobilization Forces leadershipmedium likelihoodmedium impactAnsar Allah al-Awfiya's leader demanded prosecution and Al-Ahad TV aired an ISIS-support accusation under a "right of response" banner, with no reply from Khanjar on record here.
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