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Iraq Monitorعين على العراقPrimary-source intelligence
THE LAND · WATER · JULY 2026

The water is leaving

Iraq lives on two rivers that rise in Turkey and Iran. Satellites have measured its water for three decades: its two biggest reservoirs fell to their lowest levels since 1992 in December 2025, and the ground holds less water than when the measurements began.

85billion cubic metres

less water held in Iraq’s ground, rivers and lakes over the past year (Aug 2025–Jul 2026) than in 2003–2007, as NASA’s GRACE satellites weigh it. That is 19.5 cm of water across the whole country — about 195 litres gone from every square metre.

01

Iraq’s two biggest reservoirs

Radar satellites have passed over Lake Tharthar and the Mosul Dam reservoir every ten days since 1992, measuring the height of the water. Both hit their lowest level in that record in December 2025.

Tharthar — 24.7 m lower at its low (December 2025) than at its high (June 1993); it has since risen 8.7 m.
304050607019922001200920182026HIGHLOW
47.9 m above sea level · 2026-08-31 · LATEST
Mosul Dam — 45.6 m lower at its low (December 2025) than at its high (June 1993); it has since risen 33.8 m.
28030032034019922001200920182026HIGHLOW
318.8 m above sea level · 2026-09-30 · LATEST

Height, not volume: a metre at the top of a full lake holds far more water than a metre near the bottom. Each point is the month’s average satellite pass; the gaps are years no satellite flew this track.

02

Under the ground

The GRACE satellites weigh the water itself, by how strongly it pulls on them: in the soil, under the ground, in rivers and lakes. Iraq’s water has fallen since the record began, recovering only in wet years. 2025 held the least water of any year on record.

−30−20−100102020022008201420202026LOWEST
−13.3 cm of water vs 2004–09 average · 2026-07-31 · LATEST

GRACE sees about 300 km across, so Iraq’s figure carries some of Turkey’s, Syria’s and Iran’s water with it, and it cannot say how much water is left — only how much has come and gone. The gap in 2017–18 is between the first GRACE satellites and their successors.

HOW THESE NUMBERS ARE MADE

  • Reservoir levels — NASA’s G-REALM radar altimetry, height above sea level (EGM2008), each month’s average pass. NASA’s lake data ↗ Tharthar → Mosul →
  • Water stored — the University of Texas’s GRACE and GRACE-FO mascons, averaged by the desk over the 439,026 km² inside Iraq’s border. The University of Texas’s data ↗ The series →
  • The headline — the past twelve months’ average (−16.0 cm) against 2003–2007 (3.4 cm), over Iraq’s area: 19.5 cm × 439,026 km² ≈ 85 billion m³. One centimetre of water is ten litres on a square metre.