The claim record

Iraq’s armed factions and their media channels make assertions about the world every day. This page is the running count of how often those assertions were borne out by reporting from outside that information space — measured claim by claim, with the test written down before the answer was known.

How this is measured

What counts as a claim. Only assertions that couldhave left an independent trace are entered: a strike on a named place, a casualty figure, a seizure, a named person’s arrest or death, a deployment. Statements of intent, threats, grievances, religious or ideological argument and predictions are recorded but never scored — nothing outside the channel could ever confirm or refute them, so counting them would only manufacture a number.

The test is written first.When a claim is entered, so is the specific thing that would falsify it — what an independent report would have to say for the claim to be wrong — before any search is run. This is what stops the check from drifting into finding whatever the searcher already expected.

The search is over non-militia sources only. Corroboration is looked for in Iraqi and international press, official statements and monitoring bodies. A claim repeated by three allied channels is one claim, not three confirmations, and never corroborates itself.

Checks repeat on a ladder.Independent reporting lags — sometimes by hours, often by days. A claim is therefore re-checked at widening intervals rather than judged once and closed. It is counted as settled only when the ladder has run out; until then it sits in the still open column and affects nothing.

Claims about places this desk cannot see are never scored.The independent record here is built from reporting inside Iraq. When a group claims a strike on Eilat, Tower 22 or eastern Syria, Iraqi outlets report the announcement, not the event — so a search of them can never confirm it, however true it is. Filing those as unconfirmed would penalise a group for where it says it struck rather than for whether it told the truth. They are collected, published, counted in the total and used in the analysis; they are kept out of every rate, in their own column.

No rate below 10 settled claims.Under that floor this page shows the counts and states that the sample is too small to give a rate. “1 of 2 confirmed” is not “50% reliable”, and a percentage travels further than the sentence qualifying it.

“No independent record” does not mean false. It means no outlet outside the militia information space reported the event either way. Iraqi coverage is uneven, whole districts and whole weeks go unreported, and these channels are sometimes genuinely first. Only the contradicted column carries a positive finding against a source.

2956 claims about events outside Iraq are reported here but never scored. This desk builds its independent record from reporting inside Iraq. A claimed strike on Eilat, Tower 22 or eastern Syria cannot be confirmed against Iraqi sources however true it is, so counting it as unconfirmed would measure our reach rather than the claim. Those claims stay in the total and in the analysis; they are kept out of every rate.

By group

Group	Claims	Settled	Still open	Outside coverage	Corroborated	Contradicted	No independent record	Confirmation rate
KH	2,103	252	254	948	131	0	121	52%
Badr Organization	1,528	155	273	652	94	0	61	61%
KSS	1,043	104	135	450	56	3	45	54%
AAH	989	79	157	335	48	1	30	61%
Nujaba	644	47	108	283	32	1	14	68%
Ashab al-Kahf	347	43	30	230	20	1	22	47%
Harakat al-Jihad wal-Bina	196	19	33	51	8	0	11	42%
Ansar Allah al-Awfiya	138	0	7	6	0	0	0	sample too small
Islamic Resistance in Iraq	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	sample too small

By channel

A group’s flagship channel and its supporter-amplifier channels do not have the same record. The difference between them is often the more useful finding.

Channel	Claims	Settled	Still open	Outside coverage	Corroborated	Contradicted	No independent record	Confirmation rate
Sabereen NewsKH · affiliated/aligned media	887	123	109	414	67	0	56	54%
Al-Ghadeer TVBadr Organization · official owned media	1,099	119	168	557	71	0	48	60%
Al-Ahad TVAAH · official owned media	934	72	148	320	42	1	29	58%
Unit 10,000KH · affiliated/aligned media	620	70	67	314	35	0	35	50%
Al-Ittijah TVKH · official owned media	592	59	76	220	29	0	30	49%
iNEWSKSS · affiliated/aligned media	602	56	86	202	29	1	26	52%
Al-Kornet al-Kata'ibiKSS · affiliated/aligned media	433	48	49	247	27	2	19	56%
Shabab al-IslamAshab al-Kahf · owned/non-official media	347	43	30	230	20	1	22	47%
Watan TVBadr Organization · affiliated/aligned media	429	36	105	95	23	0	13	64%
Jehad Brothers TeamNujaba · affiliated/aligned media	250	30	14	178	16	0	14	53%
Al-Janoub TVHarakat al-Jihad wal-Bina · official owned media	192	19	33	51	8	0	11	42%
Al-Nujaba TVNujaba · official owned media	392	17	93	104	16	1	0	94%
Asaib Ahl al-HaqAAH · official armed group channel	38	4	5	15	4	0	0	sample too small
Al-Sharwgy 313AAH · unofficial leadership signal channel	5	2	1	0	2	0	0	sample too small
Qais al-Khazali media officeAAH · official leader office	12	1	3	0	0	0	1	sample too small
FAAAnsar Allah al-Awfiya · official social media channel	138	0	7	6	0	0	0	sample too small
KAF CenterKH · official social media channel	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	sample too small
Harakat al-Jihad wal-BinaHarakat al-Jihad wal-Bina · official social media channel	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	sample too small
Saraya Awliya al-DamKSS · front/facade	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	sample too small
S MediaKSS · official social media channel	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	sample too small
Harakat Hezbollah al-NujabaNujaba · official armed group channel	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	sample too small
Saed al-ShuhadaKSS · official armed group channel	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	sample too small
Al-Ilam al-HarbiIslamic Resistance in Iraq · affiliated/aligned media	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	sample too small

Cite this recordIraq Monitor, “The claim record,” https://iraqmonitor.com/record.