The Daily Digest

The drone file that ended yesterday with Riyadh saying it had intercepted Iraqi-launched drones became a war on Iraqi soil overnight. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones aimed at oil facilities for a second day running; by 00:37 UTC the US military said American and Saudi forces had struck sites of Iran-backed groups in Iraq. The PMF said 20 members were killed and 32 injured across the country, with blasts at a Basra headquarters, and Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles the same night. Oil rose on the escalation.

Baghdad's answer came from the street of politics before the cabinet. Muntasiroun's Ibtisam al-Hilali demanded the trip be postponed and the Saudi ambassador summoned, and Badr's parliamentary spokesman asked for outright cancellation "out of respect for the blood of the martyrs"; within the hour the prime minister scrapped the Riyadh visit and called an urgent security meeting. A Badr leader called for a review of Iraq's agreements with Washington, while Muqtada al-Sadr warned the armed groups against dragging Iraq into a "pointless war" and said Iran should not attack Iraq either.

The armed camp split on who answers. Nujaba's signed five-point text — the only faction statement of its own on the strike — demanded expulsion of American bases, severance with Riyadh and accountability for leaving the sky open, and was relayed verbatim across Kataib Hezbollah, Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Ashab al-Kahf and Harakat al-Jihad wal-Bina channels. A Saraya Awliya al-Dam front went further, urging "the confinement of the government's weapons in the hands of the resistance". Yet Asaib Ahl al-Haq placed the remedy with the Commander-in-Chief and named no attacker, and Badr's political office called it only "a strategic error".

Ankara is the hedge Baghdad bought a day early. Turkey called the energy alliance a "historic step", with energy, water-corridor and trade coordination and a target of $30 billion in trade exchange; BP brought Turkey's TPAO into the Kirkuk project as Baghdad targets 1 million bpd. Against that, Iraq's power output meets less than half of Kurdistan Region demand, and the desk's crude export reading stands at 488,000 bpd, up 398.0%.

THINGS TO WATCH

A resistance-branded retaliatory claimmedium likelihoodhigh impactKataib Hezbollah's al-Safi set a standard that "the response must be at the level of the overt aggression" without naming target or timetable, and no claim of an operation appears in the collected material.

Identification of the four unnamed PMF deadhigh likelihoodmedium impactSabereen News reported four bodies at al-Hussein Military Hospital whose identities, unit and place of death were not stated, so naming them or a faction eulogy claiming them would fix the strike's target.

A separately signed KH or KSS statementmedium likelihoodmedium impactNujaba's text was the only original faction statement and every other carriage reproduced it, so a house-signed statement from Kataib Hezbollah or Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada would mark a shift in who leads the response.

Whether Badr names Washington or Riyadhmedium likelihoodmedium impactBadr's political office called the strike "a strategic error" while naming no perpetrator, no state and no mechanism, unlike the blocs that named Saudi Arabia the same day.

Outcome of the urgent security meeting on US agreementshigh likelihoodhigh impactThe PM called an urgent security meeting after cancelling Riyadh, while a Badr leader demanded a review of Iraq's agreements with Washington — the meeting's decisions would show whether faction demands translate into policy.