The Daily Digest

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has postponed its response to the US-Saudi strikes on the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the reasons given differ: press accounts credit an appeal by Badr Organization Secretary-General Hadi al-Amiri, while the official channel of Abu Alaa al-Walai, secretary-general of Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS), says Coordination Framework leaders asked for the hold and that timing, size and type remain under reconsideration. Prime Minister al-Zaydi met the Saudi intelligence chief in Baghdad on Friday, discussing regional security as the delay took hold and taking a renewed invitation to visit Riyadh. Basnews reports the premier guaranteed there would be no Iran-backed militia attacks on Saudi Arabia and, in a separate report, that Baghdad suspended operations against militias in exchange for a halt to Saudi attack plans — a trade neither Baghdad nor Riyadh has publicly confirmed.

Iraq's military spokesman said the country will not be drawn into regional conflicts and has no coordination with Iranian advisers, a disavowal issued as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated amid reports of a coordinated threat from Iraq and Yemen. A Najaf cleric, cutting the other way, warned of an Arab campaign against Iraq.

On the security file, the government and the ruling coalition declared state control of weapons "irreversible" and said there is no turning back from militia disarmament, while Baghdad bolstered deployments in areas it called vulnerable and warned the armed factions and promulgated an anti-terrorism law carrying severe penalties. Whether 30 September is a firm deadline or a negotiable ceiling is the question officials are now being put to, and the Interior Ministry says the borders are at high levels of security and stability.

On the economy, India's Reliance booked a supertanker at a record 25 million dollars to lift Iraqi crude, a freight print struck as Brent's prompt month reached 83.55 dollars a barrel, up 4.9% on the previous observation on the desk's series. On the land routes, Syria shipped 2 million tons of Iraqi oil through Baniyas and Lebanon is inspecting facilities for Iraqi fuel oil transit via Syria.

Still on the economy, the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank have put external debt at 10 billion dollars and at 53 billion dollars for the same country. Currency issuance rose 13.8 percent through May, the US Federal Reserve sent a 500 million dollar cash shipment, and an MP proposed a digital dinar to fix the cash shortage.

THINGS TO WATCH

Al-Zaydi accepts a date for the Riyadh visitmedium likelihoodhigh impactThe Saudi intelligence chief renewed the invitation to the premier in person in Baghdad, so an acceptance or a scheduled date should surface quickly.

Baghdad or Riyadh confirms or denies the reported operations-for-strikes trademedium likelihoodhigh impactBasnews reports Iraq suspended operations against militias in exchange for a halt to Saudi attack plans, a claim neither government has publicly addressed.

A named government or State Administration Coalition figure says whether 30 September can sliphigh likelihoodhigh impactOfficials call the weapons monopoly irreversible while coverage already frames the date as a possible negotiable ceiling, and the gap will be put to them directly.

Finance Ministry or Central Bank reconciles the external debt figurelow likelihoodmedium impactThe two institutions have published 10 billion dollars and 53 billion dollars for the same debt, an inconsistency one of them will be pressed to resolve.

Lebanon publishes an inspection result on Iraqi fuel oil transitmedium likelihoodmedium impactLebanon is inspecting the facilities now, so an approval or rejection should follow within weeks.