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IRAQ MONITOR · THE BRIEFING

The Daily Digest

WEDNESDAY, 29 JULY 2026 · EVENING EDITION

The Daily Digest

The morning edition left the joint US-Saudi strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces sites as an overnight fact; the day closed with them as a diplomatic file. Washington and Riyadh announced the strikes and the PMF put its own losses at 20 killed and 32 wounded across Iraq, with Iranian media saying four IRGC members were among the dead and Kurdistan24 reporting five Iranian advisers killed.

By afternoon the government had settled on a two-handed line — condemning the sovereignty violation while vowing tighter control over armed groups and advertising a security plan to prevent threats against neighbouring countries — while a deputy speaker of parliament urged Baghdad to carry the strikes to the UN Security Council. Iraqi leaders separately condemned the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia that preceded the night.

That balancing act took its hardest hit not from the strikes but from the striker's own account of them. Trump said the operation was coordinated with Baghdad, a claim the desk records as his, unaccompanied by any Iraqi confirmation in today's assets and sitting directly against the prime minister's condemnation of the attack on PMF headquarters and his cancelled Riyadh visit. Regionally the alignment sharpened rather than softened: Iran denounced the operation while Qatar reaffirmed its support for Saudi Arabia, and Yemen's Houthis issued their own denunciation of the joint US-Saudi action.

Bloomberg's evening analysis put the puzzle plainly, asking why the Saudis attacked Iraq despite cordial ties.

The armed camp answered on paper, and the papers diverged. A statement issued in the name of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and carried on Kataib Hezbollah's and Asaib Ahl al-Haq's channels gave the government bodies demanding the factions' weapons until 23 Safar "to see what they will do", blaming "the American enemy" and opening with a flat denial that any Saudi installation had been targeted.

Ansar Allah al-Awfiya signed and dated a separate text turning the same casualties into a legislative and diplomatic list — an end to any foreign military presence, an accelerated national air-defence system, passage of the PMF law and a review of relations with the Saudi regime, saying condemnation alone "is no longer sufficient to deter the aggressors" and claiming no action of its own. One pro-Iran faction told reporters it was awaiting a proportionate Baghdad response — the demand aimed at the state, not a threat against it.

The economic board kept its own clock through all of it. Crude exports read 488,000 bpd against a previous reading of 98,000 bpd taken on 31 May, and the parallel dinar edged up in both capitals to 150,450 per 100 USD in Baghdad and Erbil. The KRG directed its ministries to present a unified position for the 2027 federal budget and the oil ministry's undersecretary for extraction affairs discussed gas investment plans with Shell — even as Baghdad reported a halt in electricity imports from Erbil following the Khor Mor attacks.

Away from the war file, Kirkuk Now reported Yazidi appeals reaching Baghdad as identification of victims' remains resumed, and an Iraqi court sentenced six alleged ISIS members to death.

THINGS TO WATCH
23 Safar deadline arrivesmedium likelihoodhigh impactThe statement issued in the name of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq gave the government bodies demanding the factions' weapons until 23 Safar "to see what they will do", making that dated threshold the observable.
Baghdad addresses Trump's coordination claimhigh likelihoodhigh impactTrump said the strikes were coordinated with Baghdad and no listed Iraqi statement confirms it, so an explicit government confirmation or denial is the settling evidence.
PMF law moves in parliamentmedium likelihoodhigh impactAnsar Allah al-Awfiya's signed statement makes hastening the PMF law a core demand "on a par with its peers among the security institutions", so a reading or vote schedule would show the casualties converting into legislation.
Iraq files at the UN Security Councilmedium likelihoodmedium impactA deputy speaker of parliament urged Baghdad to take the strikes to the Security Council, making a formal Iraqi complaint or session request the next observable step.
Review of relations with Riyadh becomes state policylow likelihoodhigh impactAnsar Allah al-Awfiya called reviewing relations with the Saudi regime "a national necessity", going beyond the American-focused framing other factions used, and Baghdad has already cancelled the Riyadh visit.
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