The Daily Digest

Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, arrived in Baghdad on 19 August and, per Asharq al-Awsat, discussed an Iranian plan to "hide" the factions' weapons rather than surrender them, six weeks before Baghdad's 30 September handover deadline. On the same visit he praised the Iraqi 'resistance', hailed a 'new order' in the region, visited the site of Qassem Soleimani's killing and met Prime Minister al-Zaidi on wider cooperation, a trip al-Monitor places ahead of the disarmament deadline. Shafaq News reports the deadline pitting Baghdad against the Iran-aligned factions, while the national security adviser argues the weapons-restriction program would strengthen the economy. A government spokesman said the long-delayed PMF law would pass "in the coming days", The New Region reported on 20 August, and MP al-Aqabi called 30 September a sovereign and historic day for Iraq.

The Popular Mobilization Forces announced on the morning of 20 August that special operations of its Directorate-General of Security and Discipline had completed deployment inside Samarra, at the city's entrances and on external checkpoints, to secure the martyrdom-anniversary ceremonies of Imam Hasan al-Askari — a state-security assignment claimed by the PMF in its own institutional voice six weeks before it is due to hand weapons to the state. Six channels across four factional networks relayed the announcement within twenty minutes, no faction issued a statement in its own name and there is no coverage of the deployment outside the militia channels, as today's militia digest sets out.

A Baghdad court acquitted a PMF intelligence official after two days in detention, clearing him in the 2021 killing of an intelligence officer. Iraqi intelligence separately broke up a drug-trafficking network in Babil and detained two wanted "terrorists".

On the economy, Baghdad is seeking special status for its oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and has urged diplomacy and safeguards for the shipping lane. Chinese refiners are buying up Iraqi barrels as more supply leaves Hormuz and Basrah grades gained more than five percent, while the Finance Ministry records federal revenues down more than 40% on the oil decline. At street level, a fuel tanker docked amid persisting gasoline shortages, Rudaw reported on 20 August.

In the north, Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani called for enhanced air defense for the Region to counter the drone attacks that Amwaj reports sparked a wave of condemnation in Iraq and the region. Chevron is exiting the Kurdistan Region in favour of southern Iraqi deals, and Baghdad approved $45 million of $267 million in pending farmer payments for the Region, Rudaw reported.

THINGS TO WATCH

An Iraqi official states publicly whether Baghdad accepts or rejects the Iranian plan to conceal faction weaponsmedium likelihoodhigh impactAsharq al-Awsat reports Ghalibaf discussed a plan to hide rather than surrender the factions' arms, and no Iraqi official has yet answered it on the record.

The national security adviser names the handover mechanism for 30 Septembermedium likelihoodhigh impactHe is selling the weapons-restriction program as an economic gain while Shafaq reports the deadline pitting Baghdad against the factions, leaving the operational route unstated.

Baghdad or an outside partner commits air-defense assets to the Kurdistan Regionlow likelihoodmedium impactBarzani's request after the drone attacks can only be answered by the federal government or a foreign partner, not by Erbil itself.

Iraq secures or is refused special status for Hormuz oil shipmentsmedium likelihoodhigh impactBaghdad has asked for exceptional treatment for the lane and urged diplomacy over it, so a partner's answer would show whether the ask has traction.

The Popular Mobilization Forces announces another public security deployment under its own namemedium likelihoodmedium impactIts Samarra deployment was announced in the PMF's institutional voice and carried only by militia channels, so a repeat would show whether this is the file's standing pattern.