The Daily Digest

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf left Baghdad without what he came for: sources told Asharq al-Awsat that his visit, which began on 19 August, fell short of all its objectives — the same paper having reported that he carried an Iranian plan to "hide" the factions' weapons rather than surrender them before the 30 September deadline. Iraqi officials used the meetings to restate the ban on armed groups threatening other countries, and Baghdad announced the arrest of two arms dealers the same day as part of the push to bring weapons under state control. On the way out, Tehran said banking barriers with Iraq had been removed, naming no bank, channel or date.

Six consecutive commentator items on Al-Ahad TV (Asaib Ahl al-Haq — official) attacked PMF Commission chairman Falih al-Fayyad on the evening of 20 August for failing to appear before a parliamentary fact-finding committee, one analyst saying he would be held legally accountable if negligence is proven over the unannounced evacuation of PMF headquarters. The broadside came the same day a government spokesman said the long-delayed PMF law would pass "in the coming days" and a Sadiqoun deputy said Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali had intervened over the arrest of a PMF officer; neither Khazali nor the Sadiqoun bloc has said anything about Fayyad in its own name, as today's militia digest sets out.

Brent settled at 95.29 dollars a barrel, up 3.1%, and the prompt month is trading 2.5% higher at 93.82, with Chinese refiners buying up Iraqi cargoes as more supply leaves Hormuz. Baghdad has asked Tehran for special treatment on its own exports through the strait, while a fuel tanker docked amid persisting gasoline shortages at home.

In the north, the tripartite northern export deal was renewed on 20 August, spurring field restarts in Kurdistan, the concrete movement on northern crude that Baghdad's release of $45 million of $267 million in pending farmer payments for the Region had not yet produced. The chief executive of Korek Telecom separately called a Baghdad decision against the company illegal and personal.

THINGS TO WATCH

Iraq's central bank or trade ministry confirms a named channel for the removed banking barriersmedium likelihoodmedium impactIran's statement that banking barriers with Iraq have been removed named no bank, mechanism or date, so an Iraqi confirmation is what would show anything changed.

Baghdad names the affiliation of the two arrested arms dealerslow likelihoodmedium impactThe arrests were announced as part of the drive to bring weapons under state control ahead of 30 September, and whether the dealers are tied to a faction decides how much the case carries.

Tehran answers Baghdad's request for special treatment on Hormuz oil exportsmedium likelihoodhigh impactIraq has asked Iran to spare its crude from disruption in the strait, and a stated Iranian answer — or continued silence past the month — is observable against export flows.

Published northern export volumes rise under the renewed tripartite dealhigh likelihoodmedium impactThe renewal is reported to be spurring field restarts, so monthly northern export figures will show whether restarts became barrels.

Fayyad appears before parliament or the PMF law text reaches a votemedium likelihoodhigh impactThe government spokesman said the PMF law would pass 'in the coming days', which puts a datable event inside the month.