The Daily Digest

Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani travels to Baghdad today to attend a State Administration Coalition meeting, the ruling bloc's coordinating body, which Shafaq News reported on 4 August will review the Iraqi factions' response to the US-Saudi strikes. One faction has already answered in public: the leader of Kataib Hezbollah rejected disarmament and threatened a response to the US-Saudi air raids, saying the group will not give up its weapons and plans to expand its stockpiles. Middle East Eye's reporting from Baghdad frames the same strikes as a test of Iraq's balancing act between Riyadh and Tehran, the meeting arriving with the Kataib Hezbollah deadline set for two days from now.

Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq's official outlet Al-Ahad TV published two graphics within three minutes this morning, both addressed to the American administration, saying the United States will be expelled from the region and from every state hosting its bases; neither post names a target, a unit or a deadline, and Al-Ahad filed no claim of responsibility for any attack alongside them. Kataib Hezbollah's official Al-Ittijah TV said the same morning that the Islamic Resistance's deadline to answer what it called Saudi-American aggression ends the day after tomorrow, while roughly an hour earlier the KH-affiliated Sabereen News and the Badr Organization's Al-Ghadeer TV each attributed to sources that maximum alert would be lifted within hours — the countdown rests on one outlet, the stand-down on two, and the channel-by-channel account is in the Militia Digest published beside this briefing.

On the economy, state marketer SOMO put Kurdistan's crude exports at 20,000 barrels a day, which Rudaw reports is below a tenth of pre-war levels, while a monitor cited by Middle East Eye counted under a third of pre-war volumes through Hormuz in July. Baghdad is now in talks with Iran to facilitate vessel transit through the strait and has told buyers they bear responsibility for tankers once shipments leave Basrah port, the exposure moved off the seller and onto the cargo's owner.

Still on the economy, the electricity ministry says Iraq is importing 900 MW from Turkey and Jordan and buying 1,400 MW from the Kurdistan Region to meet grid demand, and Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum have begun supplying Khor Mor gas to Kirkuk and the federal power grid. Employees of that same ministry protested delayed salaries as the liquidity crisis delays public-servant pay, which a government financial adviser says does not mean bankruptcy.

On security, millions of pilgrims reached Karbala for Arbaeen, with Kurdistan24 putting foreign arrivals at nearly 5 million, the pilgrimage proceeding amid what AP describes as fears of US-Iran escalation while Iraq tightened security to prevent cross-border attacks. The government's higher committee on the pilgrimage called its success a demonstration of security and stability, and Amwaj reports US forces packing up the last Iraqi air defenses as a withdrawal deadline looms.

Also on security, Shafaq News reported sources saying Damascus denied an alert on the border near Iraq while Baghdad continues to monitor. In the north, Turkey will unveil a draft law that would bring PKK peace in Reuters's account, and truck drivers on the Erbil-Kirkuk road report checkpoint delays and bribery — two files on the same corridor, one legislative and one at the barrier.

THINGS TO WATCH

The State Administration Coalition issues a statement after the Baghdad meeting Barzani attendsmedium likelihoodhigh impactBarzani is travelling to Baghdad for the coalition meeting that Shafaq News says will review the factions' response to the US-Saudi strikes, so whether the bloc says anything in its own voice about that response is settleable at once.

Turkey publishes the text of the PKK draft lawhigh likelihoodmedium impactReuters says Ankara is about to unveil legislation to bring PKK peace, and the published text would show what it requires of PKK positions on Iraqi and Kurdistan Region territory.

SOMO publishes a Kurdistan export figure above 20,000 bpdmedium likelihoodmedium impactSOMO put Kurdistan's daily crude exports at 20,000 barrels a day amid the regional crisis, so its next figure shows whether that level is a floor or a further slide.

A second Iraqi ministry's staff hold a salary protestmedium likelihoodmedium impactElectricity ministry employees protested delayed pay while the government's own financial adviser was denying bankruptcy, so a walkout at another ministry would show the squeeze spreading beyond one payroll.

Baghdad or Washington confirms the removal of the last air defence systemsmedium likelihoodhigh impactAmwaj reports US forces packing up the last Iraqi air defences with a withdrawal deadline looming, an event either capital would have to confirm or deny on the record.